Is next year a write off already?

[Bearbonesnorm]

I was going watching a band this summer but it was cancelled and rescheduled for next June. Today I received an email telling me that due to the ongoing covid situation, it's now cancelled again and penciled in for Nov 2021. Can't help but think next year is already written off before it's begun.

[Piemonster]

Next spring is a write off.

Next year not so much, from personal experience I’d suggest it’s as much a case of not being able to secure event cancellation insurance as anything else.

That’s being reasonably optimistic with the efficacy and delivery of a vaccine.

We have shares in AstraZeneca so that might be distorting my view.

[ScotRoutes]

My expectations are low. Anything going ahead will be a bonus.

[GregMay]

Depends what you define as a write off really.

Riding my bike locally, running quiet high moorland trails on my own, spending time with my family. Enjoying the few local orienteering races that happen and not being so tired that I can't race.

No, not a write off at all.

It's not a glass half empty/full moment - it's a be happy you have a f***ing glass at all and aren't dead moment.

[Dave Barter]

I was going watching a band this summer but it was cancelled and rescheduled for next June. Today I received an email telling me that due to the ongoing covid situation, it's now cancelled again and penciled in for Nov 2021. Can't help but think next year is already written off before it's begun.

This scares the sub standard out of me given the age of the bands I like....

[PaulB2]

The rumour is that they're expecting to start rolling out a vaccine to NHS frontline workers around Christmas time. That info was almost certainly deliberately leaked by the government so no clue how true it is but it will be months before it'll be generally available.

[fatbikephil]

I have a small bet with my self that come the end of March it will be a case of 'carry on as normal but wear your masks and keep 2m apart' irrespective of whether they get a vaccine or not. The politicos will be desperate to get the economy back on track, Brexit will be happening and there will be no more PR to be gained by them keeping any but the most token of restrictions in place.

[redefined_cycles]

April the 1st is the date by which God-Willing the last case will be done. I imagine the masks will need/want continuing after that for a fair few weeks...

Lost the article but it was pretty convincing that the theoretical pandemic-model they'd ysed was very close to the actual figures/curve. Anyway, am hopeful we'll be done by/before then...

[Piemonster]

The rumour is that they're expecting to start rolling out a vaccine to NHS frontline workers around Christmas time. That info was almost certainly deliberately leaked by the government so no clue how true it is but it will be months before it'll be generally available.

Friends have been told they’ll get vaccinated next month....

...probably....

[mattpage]

London Edinburgh London audax has been put back to 2022 too.

I think the difficulty is with larger events, either size or organisation a huge amount gets done in advance, so they need to be working now for next year.

I really hope it's not a write off, but I think lots of bigger events will be starting to postpone to minimise costs.

[Piemonster]

Yeh, planning for an event is quite often well over a year.

E.g. Early bird discounts etc, and if you’re doing that you need to know you can run the event to sell tickets for. Then there’s sponsors, exhibitors, acts and the like that all need to be on the bill and marketing guff if that’s the sort of event you’re running.

FWIW I’ve been getting quite a few 2021 event adverts online. They’re all outdoor events mind you.

[PaulE]

Depends what you define as a write off really.

Riding my bike locally, running quiet high moorland trails on my own, spending time with my family. Enjoying the few local orienteering races that happen and not being so tired that I can't race.

No, not a write off at all.

It's not a glass half empty/full moment - it's a be happy you have a f***ing glass at all and aren't dead moment.

That's pretty much word for word what I would have written, just swap it to "local fell races". No year is a write off if we make good use of it and have some semblance of health

[lune ranger]

The rumour is that they're expecting to start rolling out a vaccine to NHS frontline workers around Christmas time. That info was almost certainly deliberately leaked by the government so no clue how true it is but it will be months before it'll be generally available.

There was also a rumour that we’d have a working test and trace system and a rumour that restarting schools wouldn’t cause the virus to blossom again.
Any hope that a vaccine will appear and this will all go away in a few months is probably highly misguided.
Producing it, distributing it and convincing folk to have it are all pretty big hurdles. That is if a properly effective and safe vaccine is available, bearing in mind there are no working vaccines for any coronavirus....
However life goes on and I heartily agree with Greg’s sentiment. I’ve not had such a bad year thus far and that included more than 100days living in a bell tent during the height of the first wave. I’m just getting it sorted for round 2 now.

[Pirahna]

The history lesson from Spanish Flu is that it lasted for 2 years and places that locked down hard and fast had fewer deaths and recovered economically a lot faster. Given that pandemic planning seems to be whatever Dominic Cummings dreams up on a weekly basis I would expect next year to be write off.

[BigdummySteve]

I was going watching a band this summer but it was cancelled and rescheduled for next June. Today I received an email telling me that due to the ongoing covid situation, it's now cancelled again and penciled in for Nov 2021. Can't help but think next year is already written off before it's begun.

This scares the sub standard out of me given the age of the bands I like....

I know what you mean though, I missed my chance to see at least two of my musical heroes then Buzzcocks at the Albert hall, no chance I was missing that.......bugger

[thenorthwind]

Depends what you define as a write off really.

Riding my bike locally, running quiet high moorland trails on my own, spending time with my family. Enjoying the few local orienteering races that happen and not being so tired that I can't race.

No, not a write off at all.

It's not a glass half empty/full moment - it's a be happy you have a f***ing glass at all and aren't dead moment.

That's pretty much word for word what I would have written, just swap it to "local fell races". No year is a write off if we make good use of it and have some semblance of health

Hear, hear!

[Escape Goat]

My expectations are low. Anything going ahead will be a bonus.

That's now sadly the way I am...plan nothing, hope for anything, if the minor happens, then I'm overwhelmed.

[ScotRoutes]

I'm also assuming that the "write off" referred to in the OP refers to events, gigs and other organised activities. That's the way I read it and the intent I took from it. I don't think anyone has suggested that we'll be locked indoors for 12 months.

[thenorthwind]

Fair point Colin. I doubt Stu's wanting for things to do in that shed of his.

[lune ranger]

Well in that case, it’s completely f@#ked

[ripio]

, bearing in mind there are no working vaccines for any coronavirus....

Most coronaviruses cause minimal disease therefore there is limited imperative to develop a vaccine.
MERS has a high fatality rate but does not transmit easily and the case numbers are relatively very low so again limited imperative for a vaccine, although one has been developed and is in the pipeline.
SARS 1 also had a relatively low case incidence, and subsequently disappeared from circulation so vaccine development probably was put on the back burner or abandoned.

[In Reverse]

There was also a rumour that we’d have a working test and trace system and a rumour that restarting schools wouldn’t cause the virus to blossom again.
Any hope that a vaccine will appear and this will all go away in a few months is probably highly misguided.
Producing it, distributing it and convincing folk to have it are all pretty big hurdles. That is if a properly effective and safe vaccine is available, bearing in mind there are no working vaccines for any coronavirus....

It's not a rumour that everyone involved in, and those observing vaccine development think that one or more will be available soon. My bet is there'll be a couple available in the UK by end of January.

It doesn't need a massive amount of people to be vaccinated for things to return to a relative amount of normailty - frontline NHS workers and the most vulnerable. We already have systems in place for vaccinating these people annually against seasonal flu so it's not a big hurdle to get them vaccinated. Nor are they people who will need convincing to have it.

Someone's covered the point you made about vaccines for other coronaviruses - you're overlooking a rather substantial difference in urgency and resource allocation.

I think gigs and festivals will be going again by next summer. Really hope so

[Lazarus]

bearing in mind there are no working vaccines for any coronavirus

except for the russia one for covid and the china one for covid and the 180 others in development many in phase 3 with both the Uk and US agencies [ not the leaders ]expecting them to be approved by the end of the year

Also worth saying we had never been to the moon till we did or climbed everest till we did etc
There will be vaccines the real question is how long they last for and how many of us have one.
Next year normality approaching summer ish so I expect smaller events to be run hopefully and outdoor festivals possibly just for vaccinated folk

[lune ranger]

Thanks for the telling off chaps.

No working vaccine AVAILABLE then. And when it is available it needs to be given to people, here in lies the problem, that will take a LONG time. And InReverse it will need a lot of people to have had it for it to work - upwards to 80% of the population. There are enough anti vaccine nutjobs around to make that difficult under normal circumstances. Make it look like the vaccine development has been rushed through with short cuts and undue haste, reduce public confidence in their leaders and you have a huge problem.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m pretty confident we will have a vaccine but doubt it will change our lives until at least the summer of 2021 at the earliest

[redefined_cycles]

Lets not forget that one of the biggest components in infection prevention is good hygiene (go figure... ask Dave B) and handwashing technique. So we really must get used to challenging them folk that have a wee or poo in public toilets and conveniently forget to wash them hands. I've been trying for years without much joy but hopefully people will now see things different.

The 'wet markets'... Summat really needs to be done about these evil places too and we should all have it on our agenda...