Is a full lock-down coming?

[jameso]

having seen some footage of peoples antics today and hearing what the goverment have had to say, I can't help feeling that a tightening of the screw is just around the corner.

It may well need to be. Though the rate of spread was largely set in place by the timing of the first actions and the cases we had then, it's far less about people in the parks this weekend.

I'm not convinced the news on this topic is representative either ('no sub standard..' ). Of course it's fair enough to call out any genuine areas of concern. I've never seen our area so quiet on a sunny day though, it was surreal. I went on a road ride mainly on A-roads that any sane rider would avoid any other time and there was barely a car per 5 mins riding at 9-10am. Seemed the best place to be. A few cars in the woodland car parks but ~1/4 the number of last weekend.
There's some fake news type photos of 'rammed parks' going around though. I hadn't appreciated how a long lens distorts a photo until I saw one of the Sun's efforts posted alongside an aerial view of that bit of road which showed just how far apart people were. Dubious stuff from the usual govt blame-diverting sides of the media.

[thenorthwind]

As usual the media will play on any small infringement in the drive to sell clicks. On the whole, folk have been behaving.

Absolutely this Colin.

Maybe lockdown is turning me into a conspiracy theorist but... I have a sneaking suspicion that this government, aided by certain sections of the media, and, unwittingly, the whole of the mainstream and social media (who will always take an idea and run with it), isn't terribly sorry to have someone else to shift the blame to (i.e. us, the general public) and distract from their incompetent/wilfully negligent (delete as appropriate) handling of this.

[thenorthwind]

There's some fake news type photos of 'rammed parks' going around though. I hadn't appreciated how a long lens distorts a photo until I saw one of the Sun's efforts posted alongside an aerial view of that bit of road which showed just how far apart people were. Dubious stuff from the usual govt blame-diverting sides of the media.

And this James. I noticed the first weekend of the lockdown, a few photos taken with a long lens along the main paths in parks (you know, the ones people have been told they can, even should, go to to exercise for the sake of their mental and physical health, now that gyms are shut, sports cancelled, etc.). Very easy to make a space look busy if you know what you're doing.

[jameso]

Maybe lockdown is turning me into a conspiracy theorist but... I have a sneaking suspicion that this government, aided by certain sections of the media, and, unwittingly, the whole of the mainstream and social media (who will always take an idea and run with it), isn't terribly sorry to have someone else to shift the blame to (i.e. us, the general public) and distract from their incompetent/wilfully negligent (delete as appropriate) handling of this.

Far from conspiracy theory. I'd acknowledge my political biases first but still think both there's a section of the media that have always created scapegoats to protect the tories (Murdoch mainly), and our govt haven't handled this well.
Case study, Taiwan. Spoke to a couple of work contacts there recently. Pop 24 million, 5 deaths and <400 cases so far. Much closer to the outbreak than we are, far less notice to act. They have experience of SARS though. Not that other nations couldn't also have learned from that.
A list of Tawiwan's actions on CV19 by date is an interesting benchmark to compare the UK response to - https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content ... RDK6RD3PGA

And there's not been much reporting on Taiwan in all this. Some interesting Qs on BBC's site about the Taiwan-WHO situation and little else. What we should remember in all this is >10,000 deaths was far from unavoidable or inevitable, framing our expectations is a govt/media tactic and focus on people in a park is both needed to keep things as intended, and useful blame avoidance.

[Bearbonesnorm]

I was interested to see how Sweden is handling things - those 'at risk' are advised to put themselves under lock-down, The remainder of the population are advised to keep a social distance when out. Social gatherings of more than 50 are banned but shops, pubs, schools and all industry remain open as usual. Their goverment seem to be taking the view that the original model that predicted large numbers of deaths, hospitals swamped and a general melt-down was heavily flawed.

[ScotRoutes]

I use the long-lens trick quite a bit myself so I tend to notice when it is being (ab)used. One classic you'll often see is that shot of someone on a beach and a massive setting sun behind them.

I might dig out a couple of photos later.

[thenorthwind]

Yeah, I guess as a bit of a photographer too I'm more likely to notice it.

I was interested to see how Sweden is handling things - those 'at risk' are advised to put themselves under lock-down, The remainder of the population are advised to keep a social distance when out. Social gatherings of more than 50 are banned but shops, pubs, schools and all industry remain open as usual. Their goverment seem to be taking the view that the original model that predicted large numbers of deaths, hospitals swamped and a general melt-down was heavily flawed.

I have a close friend and colleague in Sweden, and he's getting increasingly angry at the situation. His immediate boss has been allowing him to work from home, though he himself was in the office last week. But upper management have been threatening disciplinary action for those choosing themselves to work from home. He's about ready to walk. Nothing we do could be remotely considered essential.

[PaulB2]

Sweden doesn't have too many cases yet but it's deaths per capita is already higher than any of its Scandinavian neighbours (total deaths is more than Norway, Denmark and Finlands totals combined) so they may come under political pressure to change tack just like our government did. It's a fine balance between enough people contracting the virus to build up immunity and overwhelming health services causing a much higher fatality level.

[Bearbonesnorm]

It's a fine balance between enough people contracting the virus to build up immunity and overwhelming health services causing a much higher fatality level.

I think that's the crux of the whole thing really Paul. Throw in the economy, press, social media and even decent weather and it's one hell of a balancing act. Certainly one I wouldn't want to be in charge of.

[benconnolli]

So fining people who break lockdown rules, how is that stopping the entitled rich people flaunting it?

[ScotRoutes]

So fining people who break lockdown rules, how is that stopping the entitled rich people flaunting it?

Like Prince Charles?

[Mart]

Some people just don't get it, despite the message that's coming through.
Most round our way are pretty good, but always a small number that are complacent

If the scenes from the London parks and the beaches are repeated (especially with warmer weather and Easter) then I fear the worse

[Lazarus]

how wide spread is it ?
I have been to the park once with my kids for a game offootball and saw 2 dog walkers in the 25minutes we were there
On my walk yesterday there were two dog walkers - a household -in the other park near me
Is it really widespread or is there just a few isolated incidents getting masses of publicity ?
TBH if we are in isolation how the hell would we know what is going "out there"?

[whitestone]

I suspect it's very limited but it's just that they can no longer hide their prattish behaviour in the crowds because there aren't any! Also the social media curtain twitchers are keen to jump on top of any transgression and blow it up out of all proportion.

[Lazarus]

Yes i assume its just that and one or to incidents that are atypical are being used to threaten us.

[Cheeky Monkey]

... Also the social media curtain twitchers are keen to jump on top of any transgression and blow it up out of all proportion.

Nicely put Bob

[In Reverse]

What we should remember in all this is >10,000 deaths was far from unavoidable or inevitable, framing our expectations is a govt/media tactic and focus on people in a park is both needed to keep things as intended, and useful blame avoidance.

tbf the estimates on number of deaths come from Prof Neil Ferguson and his team doing the modelling at Imperial College London, so it's inaccurate to say they're driven by Government/media tactics to frame our expectations. They're also one of the main contributors to modelling and analysis for the WHO so it would be fair to say their methods conform to international standards.

The actual message from the Government, i.e. what they say at their daily press briefing, has been almost completely positive when it comes to describing public behaviour, there's been a solitary warning on future behaviour from Hancock as far as I've seen. That isn't scapegoating the public imo. The media may tell a different story but, as ever, that's just a temporary narrative they run with. Their focus now seems to have moved onto "exit strategy" and whether Boris should still be working whilst in hospital. Later in the week it will be something else.

On the total number of deaths it's worth keeping in mind that Public Health England estimate 17,000 people die on average every year from seasonal flu, and Prof Ferguson stated on Marr yesterday that they estimate at least two thirds of the C19 deaths are people who would have died from the flu anyway. So there's some context which is hopefully slightly less alarming when talking about >10,000 deaths.

[In Reverse]

I think a comparison with Taiwan is a bit of a red herring too, a more pertinent comparison is with France/Germany, but maybe that's a discussion for tomorrow.

[Gregsie]

Would be interesting to see if anyone's published any statistics with the seasonal increase in deaths compared to a 'normal year. Suspect that some of the folks that have sadly passed away due to Covid-19 would have died from some other underlying cause anyway.

Would also be interesting to see if the lockdown lasted for a prolonged period if the number of illnesses and deaths from other respiratory diseases such as asthma dropped due to the improvement in air quality.

[sean_iow]

It's not very scientific but as my desk (dining table) looks out my front window I would say there was notably fewer walkers, runners and cyclists going past compared to last Monday.

Is this as a result of the change of message from the government with the new stronger message? Or more likely just they've realised that exercising is hard work and have packed in the new leisure activity already and gone back to sitting on the sofa looking at Facebook on their phone*

*I'm aware I'm sat on the sofa looking at my phone, but I did do circuit training in the garden with Jane earlier, which was surprisingly hard work

[redefined_cycles]

Theres reports that a young ICU nurse in London killwd hwrself whilst on shift. Spoke to a physio colleague down there and he said its dire. Staff/nurses regularly crying and overly stressed...

Been thinking to try and grab a comfier* car that'll increase my range - incidentally Lexus and Toyota have put out a worlwide bulletin it seems that they'll provide free comprehensive breakdown cover to kwy workers regardless the age of the car - and ability to drive farther without stopping... current range has been 100ish miles for the mo.

Very sad situation

*But wven if I did borrow money off a mate and upgrade the car, feels like it might wind locals up... Just thinking out loud. They do pay me afterall for working extra!

[redefined_cycles]

Erm.. its not the locals that pay me. But i dont think they all know I've still got a stable (and somewhat busy) job

[Hamish]

Gower is I incredibly quiet. I have done my usual skyline route and seen about 3 walkers and one cyclist. The roads are empty as are the beaches.

I am struggling to see what the exit strategy from all this is going to be though. Without widespread testing and 'going after the virus', when controls are lifted surely we will rapidly deteriorate back to square one given that most of us still won't have had it?

[Chew]

I am struggling to see what the exit strategy from all this is going to be though. Without widespread testing and 'going after the virus', when controls are lifted surely we will rapidly deteriorate back to square one given that most of us still won't have had it?

Denmark and Austria are going to relax their restrictions in the next week or so, so we can see what happens there.

I'd be expecting the Government to roll on the restrictions as they are for another 3 weeks on top of the original 3.

By this time next week we should have a clearer picture of the affect of the current restrictions.

[voodoo_simon]

I would think getting the May bank holidays out of the way would be a sound idea. If not, can see them being chaos otherwise, holidaying and drinking throughout the country.

Can’t see what they’ll do over the summer holidays though, that’s a tough one.

I’m of the mind set, rightly or wrongly, it will be September when we see things go back to normal. Probably because I’m basing it around schools, can’t see them returning until at least post-may half term but September seems realistic to me